Analyzing extreme weather and climate: a new statistical tool

Due to processes occurring over vast ranges of scale, from fast to slow and from small to large, extreme weather and climate events aren’t as rare as scientists have thought – and that could complicate efforts to determine when extreme events signal perilous climate change, according to a new analysis published in the journal Scientific Reports.

“A spectre haunting humanity is the possibility that we may be on the verge of a ‘tipping point’ beyond which irreversible and self-accelerating climate change kicks in,” says study author and McGill University physics professor Shaun Lovejoy. His new paper introduces a graphic “spike plot,” a statistical tool that could help client scientists distinguish unlikely and unexpected extremes from true tipping points.

To learn more, see: Spectra, intermittency, and extremes of weather, macroweather and climate